What is Monarch Casino & Resort Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Monarch Casino & Resort Inc's reported free cash flow gives $233.83 per share. The share price was $117.74 on September 25, 2026, 50% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $144.60 | +23% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $233.83 | +99% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $399.97 | +240% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $301.38 | $322.45 | $348.19 | $380.37 | $421.75 |
| 8.0% | $250.63 | $264.29 | $280.44 | $299.81 | $323.49 |
| 9.0% | $213.71 | $223.05 | $233.83 | $246.40 | $261.26 |
| 10.0% | $185.71 | $192.35 | $199.88 | $208.48 | $218.41 |
| 11.0% | $163.81 | $168.67 | $174.12 | $180.24 | $187.18 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Monarch Casino & Resort Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (24.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions