What is Monarch Casino & Resort Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Monarch Casino & Resort Inc's reported free cash flow gives $234.75 per share. The share price was $110.17 on November 10, 2026, 53% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $145.53 | +32% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $234.75 | +113% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $400.90 | +264% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $302.31 | $323.37 | $349.12 | $381.30 | $422.67 |
| 8.0% | $251.56 | $265.22 | $281.36 | $300.74 | $324.41 |
| 9.0% | $214.64 | $223.98 | $234.75 | $247.33 | $262.18 |
| 10.0% | $186.64 | $193.28 | $200.81 | $209.41 | $219.34 |
| 11.0% | $164.73 | $169.60 | $175.04 | $181.16 | $188.10 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Monarch Casino & Resort Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (24.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions