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DCF valuation

What is Moodys Corp worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Moodys Corp's reported free cash flow gives $272.68 per share. The share price was $468.70 on September 25, 2026, 72% above that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$2.58B
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$2.01B
Cash
$1.47B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$6.95B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
179,900,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
7.5%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear2.5%2.5%2.0%10.0%$158.69-66%
Base7.5%5.0%2.5%9.0%$272.68-42%
Bull12.5%8.0%3.0%8.0%$499.97+7%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$357.41$383.34$415.04$454.67$505.62
8.0%$294.13$310.95$330.82$354.68$383.83
9.0%$247.91$259.41$272.68$288.16$306.46
10.0%$212.72$220.90$230.17$240.76$252.99
11.0%$185.07$191.07$197.77$205.31$213.85

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Moodys Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Moodys Corp company page