What is MediaAlpha, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on MediaAlpha, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $27.02 per share. The share price was $14.37 on November 10, 2026, 47% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.5% | 10.0% | $15.82 | +10% |
| Base | 13.5% | 9.0% | $27.02 | +88% |
| Bull | 18.5% | 8.0% | $49.32 | +243% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $35.63 | $38.30 | $41.57 | $45.66 | $50.91 |
| 8.0% | $29.17 | $30.90 | $32.95 | $35.41 | $38.42 |
| 9.0% | $24.46 | $25.65 | $27.02 | $28.61 | $30.50 |
| 10.0% | $20.89 | $21.74 | $22.69 | $23.78 | $25.04 |
| 11.0% | $18.10 | $18.71 | $19.41 | $20.18 | $21.06 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at MediaAlpha, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions