What is Marriott International Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Marriott International Inc's reported free cash flow gives $316.51 per share. The share price was $425.62 on November 10, 2026, 34% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $192.93 | -55% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $316.51 | -26% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $546.62 | +28% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $410.07 | $439.25 | $474.90 | $519.48 | $576.78 |
| 8.0% | $339.79 | $358.71 | $381.06 | $407.90 | $440.69 |
| 9.0% | $288.65 | $301.58 | $316.51 | $333.92 | $354.50 |
| 10.0% | $249.87 | $259.07 | $269.49 | $281.41 | $295.16 |
| 11.0% | $219.53 | $226.27 | $233.81 | $242.29 | $251.90 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Marriott International Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions