What is Marriott International Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Marriott International Inc's reported free cash flow gives $316.54 per share. The share price was $352.03 on September 25, 2026, 11% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $192.96 | -45% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $316.54 | -10% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $546.65 | +55% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $410.11 | $439.28 | $474.94 | $519.51 | $576.81 |
| 8.0% | $339.82 | $358.74 | $381.10 | $407.93 | $440.72 |
| 9.0% | $288.68 | $301.61 | $316.54 | $333.95 | $354.53 |
| 10.0% | $249.90 | $259.10 | $269.53 | $281.44 | $295.19 |
| 11.0% | $219.56 | $226.30 | $233.84 | $242.32 | $251.93 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Marriott International Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions