What is Mastercard Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Mastercard Inc's reported free cash flow gives $377.48 per share. The share price was $658.84 on November 10, 2026, 75% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.0% | 10.0% | $226.25 | -66% |
| Base | 7.0% | 9.0% | $377.48 | -43% |
| Bull | 12.0% | 8.0% | $659.76 | +0% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $487.04 | $520.57 | $561.55 | $612.77 | $678.63 |
| 8.0% | $405.22 | $426.97 | $452.66 | $483.50 | $521.19 |
| 9.0% | $345.47 | $360.33 | $377.48 | $397.50 | $421.15 |
| 10.0% | $299.97 | $310.54 | $322.52 | $336.21 | $352.01 |
| 11.0% | $264.21 | $271.96 | $280.62 | $290.36 | $301.41 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Mastercard Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions