What is Grand Canyon Education, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $162.43 per share. The share price was $115.67 on November 10, 2026, 29% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $102.50 | -11% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $162.43 | +40% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $281.91 | +144% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $206.42 | $219.81 | $236.17 | $256.63 | $282.94 |
| 8.0% | $173.62 | $182.30 | $192.57 | $204.88 | $219.94 |
| 9.0% | $149.64 | $155.58 | $162.43 | $170.42 | $179.87 |
| 10.0% | $131.36 | $135.59 | $140.37 | $145.84 | $152.15 |
| 11.0% | $116.98 | $120.08 | $123.54 | $127.43 | $131.84 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions