What is Grand Canyon Education, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $166.44 per share. The share price was $147.28 on September 25, 2026, 12% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $106.51 | -28% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $166.44 | +13% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $285.92 | +94% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $210.42 | $223.81 | $240.18 | $260.64 | $286.95 |
| 8.0% | $177.63 | $186.31 | $196.57 | $208.89 | $223.94 |
| 9.0% | $153.65 | $159.59 | $166.44 | $174.43 | $183.88 |
| 10.0% | $135.37 | $139.59 | $144.38 | $149.85 | $156.16 |
| 11.0% | $120.99 | $124.08 | $127.54 | $131.44 | $135.85 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions