What is Lennar Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Lennar Corp's reported free cash flow gives $10.89 per share. The share price was $82.15 on September 25, 2026, 654% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $9.96 | -88% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $10.89 | -87% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $12.74 | -84% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $11.58 | $11.79 | $12.05 | $12.38 | $12.80 |
| 8.0% | $11.06 | $11.20 | $11.36 | $11.56 | $11.80 |
| 9.0% | $10.69 | $10.78 | $10.89 | $11.02 | $11.17 |
| 10.0% | $10.40 | $10.47 | $10.54 | $10.63 | $10.73 |
| 11.0% | $10.17 | $10.22 | $10.28 | $10.34 | $10.41 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Lennar Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions