What is Lear Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Lear Corp's reported free cash flow gives $162.35 per share. The share price was $108.61 on November 10, 2026, 33% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $88.70 | -18% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $162.35 | +49% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $309.22 | +185% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $216.76 | $233.37 | $253.68 | $279.05 | $311.68 |
| 8.0% | $176.16 | $186.93 | $199.66 | $214.94 | $233.61 |
| 9.0% | $146.49 | $153.86 | $162.35 | $172.27 | $183.99 |
| 10.0% | $123.89 | $129.13 | $135.06 | $141.85 | $149.67 |
| 11.0% | $106.12 | $109.96 | $114.25 | $119.08 | $124.55 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Lear Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions