What is ST JOE Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on ST JOE Co's reported free cash flow gives $102.18 per share. The share price was $72.91 on November 10, 2026, 29% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $60.44 | -17% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $102.18 | +40% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $179.92 | +147% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $133.79 | $143.65 | $155.69 | $170.75 | $190.11 |
| 8.0% | $110.05 | $116.44 | $123.99 | $133.06 | $144.13 |
| 9.0% | $92.77 | $97.14 | $102.18 | $108.07 | $115.02 |
| 10.0% | $79.67 | $82.78 | $86.30 | $90.33 | $94.97 |
| 11.0% | $69.42 | $71.70 | $74.25 | $77.11 | $80.36 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at ST JOE Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (26.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions