What is ST JOE Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on ST JOE Co's reported free cash flow gives $102.03 per share. The share price was $65.30 on September 25, 2026, 36% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $60.28 | -8% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $102.03 | +56% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $179.76 | +175% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $133.63 | $143.49 | $155.53 | $170.59 | $189.95 |
| 8.0% | $109.89 | $116.28 | $123.83 | $132.90 | $143.98 |
| 9.0% | $92.61 | $96.98 | $102.03 | $107.91 | $114.86 |
| 10.0% | $79.51 | $82.62 | $86.14 | $90.17 | $94.81 |
| 11.0% | $69.26 | $71.54 | $74.09 | $76.95 | $80.20 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at ST JOE Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (26.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions