What is James Hardie Industries plc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on James Hardie Industries plc's reported free cash flow gives $2.22 per share. The share price was $25.39 on September 28, 2026, 1,044% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | -$1.39 | -105% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $2.22 | -91% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $9.42 | -63% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $4.95 | $5.79 | $6.82 | $8.11 | $9.77 |
| 8.0% | $2.91 | $3.45 | $4.10 | $4.87 | $5.82 |
| 9.0% | $1.41 | $1.79 | $2.22 | $2.72 | $3.32 |
| 10.0% | $0.28 | $0.55 | $0.85 | $1.19 | $1.59 |
| 11.0% | -$0.61 | -$0.41 | -$0.20 | $0.05 | $0.33 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at James Hardie Industries plc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions