What is Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $134.09 per share. The share price was $33.50 on November 10, 2026, 75% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $89.28 | +166% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $134.09 | +300% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $223.45 | +567% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $167.40 | $177.60 | $190.06 | $205.64 | $225.67 |
| 8.0% | $142.52 | $149.14 | $156.95 | $166.33 | $177.79 |
| 9.0% | $124.36 | $128.88 | $134.09 | $140.18 | $147.37 |
| 10.0% | $110.52 | $113.74 | $117.38 | $121.55 | $126.35 |
| 11.0% | $99.65 | $102.01 | $104.64 | $107.61 | $110.97 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions