What is Hovnanian Enterprises Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hovnanian Enterprises Inc's reported free cash flow gives $313.43 per share. The share price was $113.48 on September 28, 2026, 64% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.0% | 10.0% | $143.40 | +26% |
| Base | 5.0% | 9.0% | $313.43 | +176% |
| Bull | 10.0% | 8.0% | $630.89 | +456% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $435.09 | $472.12 | $517.37 | $573.94 | $646.68 |
| 8.0% | $344.39 | $368.40 | $396.78 | $430.83 | $472.46 |
| 9.0% | $278.07 | $294.49 | $313.43 | $335.53 | $361.65 |
| 10.0% | $227.51 | $239.19 | $252.42 | $267.54 | $284.99 |
| 11.0% | $187.73 | $196.29 | $205.85 | $216.61 | $228.81 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hovnanian Enterprises Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions