What is Harley-Davidson, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $54.55 per share. The share price was $34.22 on November 10, 2026, 37% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -3.0% | 10.0% | $34.56 | +1% |
| Base | 2.0% | 9.0% | $54.55 | +59% |
| Bull | 7.0% | 8.0% | $91.89 | +169% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $68.58 | $72.81 | $77.98 | $84.44 | $92.75 |
| 8.0% | $58.15 | $60.89 | $64.14 | $68.03 | $72.78 |
| 9.0% | $50.51 | $52.39 | $54.55 | $57.08 | $60.06 |
| 10.0% | $44.68 | $46.01 | $47.52 | $49.25 | $51.25 |
| 11.0% | $40.08 | $41.06 | $42.15 | $43.38 | $44.77 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions