What is Hinge Health, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hinge Health, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $107.23 per share. The share price was $123.23 on November 10, 2026, 15% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $66.68 | -46% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $107.23 | -13% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $182.75 | +48% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $137.94 | $147.51 | $159.22 | $173.84 | $192.65 |
| 8.0% | $114.87 | $121.08 | $128.42 | $137.22 | $147.99 |
| 9.0% | $98.09 | $102.33 | $107.23 | $112.95 | $119.70 |
| 10.0% | $85.36 | $88.38 | $91.80 | $95.71 | $100.23 |
| 11.0% | $75.41 | $77.62 | $80.09 | $82.88 | $86.03 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hinge Health, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 2 fiscal years (41.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions