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DCF valuation

What is Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc's reported free cash flow gives -$6.89 per share. The share price was $9.10 on September 25, 2026, 232% below that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$49.9M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$95.6M
Cash
$238.7M
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$2.27B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
173,017,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
3.7%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear-1.5%0.5%2.0%10.0%-$8.68-195%
Base3.5%3.0%2.5%9.0%-$6.89-176%
Bull8.5%6.0%3.0%8.0%-$3.32-137%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%-$5.60-$5.20-$4.72-$4.12-$3.35
8.0%-$6.56-$6.31-$6.01-$5.64-$5.20
9.0%-$7.27-$7.09-$6.89-$6.66-$6.38
10.0%-$7.81-$7.68-$7.54-$7.38-$7.20
11.0%-$8.23-$8.14-$8.04-$7.93-$7.80

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc company page