What is W.W. Grainger, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on W.W. Grainger, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $582.79 per share. The share price was $1,472.91 on November 10, 2026, 153% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $347.96 | -76% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $582.79 | -60% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $1,050.97 | -29% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $758.38 | $812.27 | $878.14 | $960.48 | $1,066.34 |
| 8.0% | $627.13 | $662.08 | $703.38 | $752.95 | $813.52 |
| 9.0% | $531.32 | $555.22 | $582.79 | $614.96 | $652.97 |
| 10.0% | $458.42 | $475.41 | $494.67 | $516.68 | $542.08 |
| 11.0% | $401.17 | $413.63 | $427.55 | $443.21 | $460.97 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at W.W. Grainger, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions