What is Granite Construction Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Granite Construction Inc's reported free cash flow gives $97.63 per share. The share price was $115.08 on September 25, 2026, 18% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | $55.51 | -52% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | $97.63 | -15% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $179.66 | +56% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $127.63 | $136.74 | $147.87 | $161.79 | $179.68 |
| 8.0% | $105.28 | $111.19 | $118.17 | $126.55 | $136.78 |
| 9.0% | $88.93 | $92.97 | $97.63 | $103.06 | $109.49 |
| 10.0% | $76.46 | $79.33 | $82.58 | $86.30 | $90.60 |
| 11.0% | $66.64 | $68.74 | $71.09 | $73.74 | $76.74 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Granite Construction Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions