What is Green Thumb Industries Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Green Thumb Industries Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $31.03 per share. The share price was $7.91 on September 28, 2026, 75% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $19.32 | +144% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $31.03 | +292% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $52.82 | +568% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $39.89 | $42.65 | $46.03 | $50.25 | $55.68 |
| 8.0% | $33.23 | $35.02 | $37.14 | $39.68 | $42.79 |
| 9.0% | $28.39 | $29.61 | $31.03 | $32.68 | $34.62 |
| 10.0% | $24.71 | $25.59 | $26.57 | $27.70 | $29.00 |
| 11.0% | $21.84 | $22.48 | $23.19 | $24.00 | $24.91 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Green Thumb Industries Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (16.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions