What is Goosehead Insurance, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $66.94 per share. The share price was $45.23 on September 25, 2026, 32% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $37.65 | -17% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $66.94 | +48% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $121.48 | +169% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $89.11 | $96.03 | $104.48 | $115.04 | $128.63 |
| 8.0% | $72.45 | $76.94 | $82.24 | $88.60 | $96.37 |
| 9.0% | $60.33 | $63.40 | $66.94 | $71.06 | $75.94 |
| 10.0% | $51.14 | $53.32 | $55.79 | $58.62 | $61.88 |
| 11.0% | $43.95 | $45.55 | $47.34 | $49.35 | $51.62 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (25.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions