What is Green Brick Partners, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Green Brick Partners, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $159.79 per share.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $98.26 | - |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $159.79 | - |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $274.35 | - |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $206.37 | $220.89 | $238.65 | $260.84 | $289.37 |
| 8.0% | $171.38 | $180.80 | $191.93 | $205.29 | $221.61 |
| 9.0% | $145.92 | $152.36 | $159.79 | $168.46 | $178.70 |
| 10.0% | $126.61 | $131.19 | $136.38 | $142.31 | $149.16 |
| 11.0% | $111.51 | $114.86 | $118.62 | $122.84 | $127.62 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Green Brick Partners, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (15.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions