What is Alphabet Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Alphabet Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $192.22 per share. The share price was $287.38 on November 10, 2026, 50% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $114.55 | -60% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $192.22 | -33% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $336.84 | +17% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $251.02 | $269.36 | $291.77 | $319.78 | $355.80 |
| 8.0% | $206.85 | $218.74 | $232.79 | $249.66 | $270.27 |
| 9.0% | $174.71 | $182.84 | $192.22 | $203.17 | $216.10 |
| 10.0% | $150.34 | $156.12 | $162.68 | $170.16 | $178.80 |
| 11.0% | $131.27 | $135.51 | $140.25 | $145.58 | $151.62 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Alphabet Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (17.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions