What is Griffon Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Griffon Corp's reported free cash flow gives $88.71 per share. The share price was $98.39 on September 25, 2026, 11% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.0% | 10.0% | $45.43 | -54% |
| Base | 4.0% | 9.0% | $88.71 | -10% |
| Bull | 9.0% | 8.0% | $169.51 | +72% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $119.47 | $128.81 | $140.22 | $154.48 | $172.82 |
| 8.0% | $96.55 | $102.61 | $109.76 | $118.35 | $128.85 |
| 9.0% | $79.79 | $83.93 | $88.71 | $94.28 | $100.86 |
| 10.0% | $67.00 | $69.94 | $73.28 | $77.09 | $81.49 |
| 11.0% | $56.93 | $59.09 | $61.50 | $64.21 | $67.29 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Griffon Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions