What is Genesis Energy LP worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Genesis Energy LP's reported free cash flow gives -$18.48 per share. The share price was $14.17 on September 25, 2026, 177% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -7.0% | 10.0% | -$20.91 | -248% |
| Base | -2.0% | 9.0% | -$18.48 | -230% |
| Bull | 3.0% | 8.0% | -$13.94 | -198% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$16.82 | -$16.33 | -$15.72 | -$14.97 | -$14.00 |
| 8.0% | -$18.05 | -$17.73 | -$17.35 | -$16.90 | -$16.34 |
| 9.0% | -$18.95 | -$18.73 | -$18.48 | -$18.18 | -$17.84 |
| 10.0% | -$19.64 | -$19.48 | -$19.31 | -$19.11 | -$18.87 |
| 11.0% | -$20.19 | -$20.07 | -$19.94 | -$19.80 | -$19.64 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Genesis Energy LP's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-2.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions