What is Fair Isaac Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Fair Isaac Corp's reported free cash flow gives $446.68 per share. The share price was $863.09 on September 25, 2026, 93% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $197.04 | -77% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $446.68 | -48% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $944.43 | +9% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $632.23 | $689.03 | $758.45 | $845.23 | $956.80 |
| 8.0% | $493.65 | $530.48 | $574.01 | $626.25 | $690.10 |
| 9.0% | $392.44 | $417.62 | $446.68 | $480.59 | $520.65 |
| 10.0% | $315.38 | $333.29 | $353.59 | $376.79 | $403.55 |
| 11.0% | $254.83 | $267.96 | $282.63 | $299.14 | $317.85 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Fair Isaac Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 6 fiscal years (7.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions