What is Fair Isaac Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Fair Isaac Corp's reported free cash flow gives $1,232.26 per share. The share price was $715.15 on November 10, 2026, 42% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.0% | 10.0% | $663.69 | -7% |
| Base | 14.0% | 9.0% | $1,232.26 | +72% |
| Bull | 19.0% | 8.0% | $2,291.37 | +220% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,660.55 | $1,793.81 | $1,956.68 | $2,160.28 | $2,422.05 |
| 8.0% | $1,339.03 | $1,425.45 | $1,527.58 | $1,650.14 | $1,799.94 |
| 9.0% | $1,105.00 | $1,164.08 | $1,232.26 | $1,311.80 | $1,405.81 |
| 10.0% | $927.46 | $969.48 | $1,017.10 | $1,071.52 | $1,134.32 |
| 11.0% | $788.47 | $819.28 | $853.71 | $892.44 | $936.34 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Fair Isaac Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions