What is First Financial Bankshares Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on First Financial Bankshares Inc's reported free cash flow gives $45.39 per share. The share price was $32.45 on September 25, 2026, 29% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.0% | 10.0% | $29.47 | -9% |
| Base | 7.0% | 9.0% | $45.39 | +40% |
| Bull | 12.0% | 8.0% | $75.10 | +131% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $56.92 | $60.45 | $64.76 | $70.16 | $77.09 |
| 8.0% | $48.31 | $50.60 | $53.30 | $56.55 | $60.52 |
| 9.0% | $42.02 | $43.58 | $45.39 | $47.49 | $49.98 |
| 10.0% | $37.23 | $38.34 | $39.60 | $41.04 | $42.71 |
| 11.0% | $33.46 | $34.28 | $35.19 | $36.22 | $37.38 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at First Financial Bankshares Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (6.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions