What is First Bancorp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on First Bancorp's reported free cash flow gives $66.45 per share. The share price was $26.09 on November 9, 2026, 61% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | $41.94 | +61% |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $66.45 | +155% |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $115.29 | +342% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $84.88 | $90.55 | $97.48 | $106.14 | $117.28 |
| 8.0% | $71.09 | $74.77 | $79.11 | $84.33 | $90.70 |
| 9.0% | $61.03 | $63.54 | $66.45 | $69.83 | $73.83 |
| 10.0% | $53.38 | $55.17 | $57.19 | $59.51 | $62.18 |
| 11.0% | $47.38 | $48.69 | $50.15 | $51.80 | $53.67 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at First Bancorp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions