What is First Bancorp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on First Bancorp's reported free cash flow gives $67.06 per share. The share price was $27.06 on September 25, 2026, 60% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | $42.56 | +57% |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $67.06 | +148% |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $115.91 | +328% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $85.49 | $91.16 | $98.09 | $106.76 | $117.90 |
| 8.0% | $71.70 | $75.38 | $79.73 | $84.94 | $91.32 |
| 9.0% | $61.64 | $64.16 | $67.06 | $70.44 | $74.44 |
| 10.0% | $53.99 | $55.78 | $57.81 | $60.12 | $62.80 |
| 11.0% | $47.99 | $49.30 | $50.77 | $52.41 | $54.28 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at First Bancorp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions