What is EXPAND ENERGY Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on EXPAND ENERGY Corp's reported free cash flow gives $136.99 per share. The share price was $86.84 on September 25, 2026, 37% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $79.58 | -8% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $136.99 | +58% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $244.19 | +181% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $178.34 | $190.95 | $206.38 | $225.65 | $250.44 |
| 8.0% | $147.49 | $155.67 | $165.34 | $176.95 | $191.13 |
| 9.0% | $124.94 | $130.54 | $136.99 | $144.53 | $153.43 |
| 10.0% | $107.77 | $111.75 | $116.26 | $121.41 | $127.36 |
| 11.0% | $94.26 | $97.18 | $100.44 | $104.11 | $108.26 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at EXPAND ENERGY Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 6 fiscal years (6.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions