What is Embecta Corp. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Embecta Corp.'s reported free cash flow gives $21.37 per share. The share price was $5.90 on September 25, 2026, 72% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -5.0% | 10.0% | $5.46 | -7% |
| Base | -0.0% | 9.0% | $21.37 | +262% |
| Bull | 5.0% | 8.0% | $51.08 | +766% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $32.38 | $35.68 | $39.71 | $44.75 | $51.22 |
| 8.0% | $24.21 | $26.35 | $28.88 | $31.91 | $35.62 |
| 9.0% | $18.22 | $19.68 | $21.37 | $23.34 | $25.67 |
| 10.0% | $13.64 | $14.68 | $15.86 | $17.20 | $18.76 |
| 11.0% | $10.02 | $10.78 | $11.63 | $12.59 | $13.68 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Embecta Corp.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-0.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions