What is e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $97.55 per share. The share price was $99.51 on September 25, 2026, 2% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $56.03 | -44% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $97.55 | -2% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $174.85 | +76% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $128.98 | $138.78 | $150.76 | $165.73 | $184.99 |
| 8.0% | $105.37 | $111.72 | $119.24 | $128.25 | $139.27 |
| 9.0% | $88.19 | $92.53 | $97.55 | $103.40 | $110.31 |
| 10.0% | $75.16 | $78.25 | $81.75 | $85.76 | $90.37 |
| 11.0% | $64.97 | $67.23 | $69.76 | $72.61 | $75.84 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (38.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions