What is Duolingo, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Duolingo, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $277.31 per share. The share price was $143.51 on September 25, 2026, 48% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $178.09 | +24% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $277.31 | +93% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $462.07 | +222% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $352.44 | $375.86 | $404.49 | $440.28 | $486.29 |
| 8.0% | $296.00 | $311.19 | $329.15 | $350.69 | $377.02 |
| 9.0% | $254.94 | $265.33 | $277.31 | $291.29 | $307.82 |
| 10.0% | $223.81 | $231.19 | $239.56 | $249.13 | $260.17 |
| 11.0% | $199.45 | $204.86 | $210.91 | $217.72 | $225.44 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Duolingo, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (59.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions