What is Duolingo, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Duolingo, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $278.53 per share. The share price was $154.25 on November 9, 2026, 45% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $179.30 | +16% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $278.53 | +81% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $463.29 | +200% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $353.65 | $377.08 | $405.71 | $441.49 | $487.51 |
| 8.0% | $297.22 | $312.41 | $330.36 | $351.90 | $378.23 |
| 9.0% | $256.16 | $266.54 | $278.53 | $292.51 | $309.03 |
| 10.0% | $225.02 | $232.41 | $240.78 | $250.35 | $261.38 |
| 11.0% | $200.66 | $206.08 | $212.13 | $218.94 | $226.65 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Duolingo, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (59.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions