What is Deere & Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Deere & Co's reported free cash flow gives $446.56 per share. The share price was $690.46 on September 25, 2026, 55% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.0% | 10.0% | $288.27 | -58% |
| Base | 5.0% | 9.0% | $446.56 | -35% |
| Bull | 10.0% | 8.0% | $742.10 | +7% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $559.82 | $594.29 | $636.42 | $689.09 | $756.80 |
| 8.0% | $475.38 | $497.73 | $524.15 | $555.86 | $594.60 |
| 9.0% | $413.64 | $428.92 | $446.56 | $467.13 | $491.45 |
| 10.0% | $366.57 | $377.44 | $389.76 | $403.84 | $420.08 |
| 11.0% | $329.53 | $337.50 | $346.41 | $356.43 | $367.78 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Deere & Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions