What is Chevron Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Chevron Corp's reported free cash flow gives $300.52 per share. The share price was $204.45 on September 25, 2026, 32% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $184.62 | -10% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $300.52 | +47% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $516.33 | +153% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $388.27 | $415.63 | $449.07 | $490.87 | $544.62 |
| 8.0% | $322.35 | $340.10 | $361.07 | $386.23 | $416.98 |
| 9.0% | $274.39 | $286.52 | $300.52 | $316.85 | $336.15 |
| 10.0% | $238.03 | $246.65 | $256.43 | $267.61 | $280.50 |
| 11.0% | $209.57 | $215.90 | $222.96 | $230.92 | $239.93 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Chevron Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions