What is Chevron Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Chevron Corp's reported free cash flow gives $302.86 per share. The share price was $211.22 on November 10, 2026, 30% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $186.96 | -11% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $302.86 | +43% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $518.67 | +146% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $390.61 | $417.97 | $451.41 | $493.21 | $546.96 |
| 8.0% | $324.69 | $342.43 | $363.40 | $388.57 | $419.32 |
| 9.0% | $276.73 | $288.86 | $302.86 | $319.19 | $338.49 |
| 10.0% | $240.36 | $248.99 | $258.77 | $269.94 | $282.84 |
| 11.0% | $211.91 | $218.23 | $225.30 | $233.25 | $242.27 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Chevron Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions