What is Castle Biosciences Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Castle Biosciences Inc's reported free cash flow gives $34.63 per share. The share price was $34.42 on November 10, 2026, 1% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $21.96 | -36% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $34.63 | +1% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $58.22 | +69% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $44.22 | $47.21 | $50.87 | $55.44 | $61.31 |
| 8.0% | $37.02 | $38.96 | $41.25 | $44.00 | $47.36 |
| 9.0% | $31.77 | $33.10 | $34.63 | $36.42 | $38.52 |
| 10.0% | $27.80 | $28.74 | $29.81 | $31.03 | $32.44 |
| 11.0% | $24.69 | $25.38 | $26.15 | $27.02 | $28.01 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Castle Biosciences Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (40.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions