What is Cisco Systems, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Cisco Systems, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $55.09 per share. The share price was $106.70 on September 25, 2026, 94% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.0% | 10.0% | $32.51 | -70% |
| Base | 5.0% | 9.0% | $55.09 | -48% |
| Bull | 10.0% | 8.0% | $97.25 | -9% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $71.24 | $76.16 | $82.17 | $89.68 | $99.34 |
| 8.0% | $59.20 | $62.39 | $66.16 | $70.68 | $76.21 |
| 9.0% | $50.39 | $52.57 | $55.09 | $58.02 | $61.49 |
| 10.0% | $43.68 | $45.23 | $46.99 | $48.99 | $51.31 |
| 11.0% | $38.39 | $39.53 | $40.80 | $42.23 | $43.85 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Cisco Systems, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions