What is Crocs, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Crocs, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $380.79 per share. The share price was $126.14 on September 25, 2026, 67% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $223.14 | +77% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $380.79 | +202% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $674.36 | +435% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $500.16 | $537.38 | $582.87 | $639.73 | $712.84 |
| 8.0% | $410.49 | $434.63 | $463.15 | $497.38 | $539.22 |
| 9.0% | $345.25 | $361.75 | $380.79 | $403.01 | $429.26 |
| 10.0% | $295.78 | $307.52 | $320.82 | $336.02 | $353.56 |
| 11.0% | $257.07 | $265.68 | $275.29 | $286.11 | $298.37 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Crocs, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (23.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions