What is Crocs, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Crocs, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $381.01 per share. The share price was $160.10 on November 10, 2026, 58% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $223.36 | +40% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $381.01 | +138% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $674.58 | +321% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $500.38 | $537.60 | $583.09 | $639.95 | $713.05 |
| 8.0% | $410.71 | $434.85 | $463.37 | $497.60 | $539.44 |
| 9.0% | $345.47 | $361.97 | $381.01 | $403.23 | $429.48 |
| 10.0% | $296.00 | $307.73 | $321.03 | $336.24 | $353.77 |
| 11.0% | $257.29 | $265.89 | $275.51 | $286.33 | $298.59 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Crocs, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (23.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions