What is Canterbury Park Holding Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Canterbury Park Holding Corp's reported free cash flow gives $29.14 per share. The share price was $15.78 on September 24, 2026, 46% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.5% | 10.0% | $19.10 | +21% |
| Base | 12.5% | 9.0% | $29.14 | +85% |
| Bull | 17.5% | 8.0% | $49.15 | +211% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $36.82 | $39.20 | $42.11 | $45.75 | $50.42 |
| 8.0% | $31.06 | $32.61 | $34.43 | $36.62 | $39.30 |
| 9.0% | $26.87 | $27.92 | $29.14 | $30.56 | $32.24 |
| 10.0% | $23.68 | $24.43 | $25.28 | $26.26 | $27.38 |
| 11.0% | $21.19 | $21.74 | $22.35 | $23.04 | $23.83 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Canterbury Park Holding Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions