What is Cencora, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Cencora, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $384.91 per share. The share price was $306.92 on September 25, 2026, 20% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $217.33 | -29% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $384.91 | +25% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $697.40 | +127% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $509.14 | $547.54 | $594.47 | $653.14 | $728.57 |
| 8.0% | $416.07 | $440.98 | $470.41 | $505.72 | $548.88 |
| 9.0% | $348.24 | $365.26 | $384.91 | $407.83 | $434.92 |
| 10.0% | $296.70 | $308.81 | $322.53 | $338.21 | $356.31 |
| 11.0% | $256.29 | $265.17 | $275.09 | $286.25 | $298.90 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Cencora, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions