What is Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $276.26 per share. The share price was $24.47 on November 10, 2026, 91% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $169.29 | +592% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $276.26 | +1,029% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $475.44 | +1,843% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $357.25 | $382.50 | $413.37 | $451.95 | $501.55 |
| 8.0% | $296.41 | $312.78 | $332.14 | $355.36 | $383.75 |
| 9.0% | $252.14 | $263.34 | $276.26 | $291.33 | $309.14 |
| 10.0% | $218.58 | $226.54 | $235.56 | $245.88 | $257.78 |
| 11.0% | $192.31 | $198.15 | $204.67 | $212.01 | $220.33 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (20.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions