What is Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $275.87 per share. The share price was $22.53 on September 25, 2026, 92% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $168.90 | +650% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $275.87 | +1,124% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $475.06 | +2,009% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $356.86 | $382.12 | $412.98 | $451.56 | $501.17 |
| 8.0% | $296.02 | $312.40 | $331.75 | $354.98 | $383.36 |
| 9.0% | $251.76 | $262.95 | $275.87 | $290.94 | $308.76 |
| 10.0% | $218.19 | $226.15 | $235.18 | $245.49 | $257.39 |
| 11.0% | $191.93 | $197.76 | $204.29 | $211.63 | $219.95 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (20.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions