What is Capital One Financial Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Capital One Financial Corp's reported free cash flow gives $1,450.04 per share. The share price was $195.84 on November 10, 2026, 86% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.5% | 10.0% | $896.68 | +358% |
| Base | 13.5% | 9.0% | $1,450.04 | +640% |
| Bull | 18.5% | 8.0% | $2,552.35 | +1,203% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,875.65 | $2,007.82 | $2,169.37 | $2,371.30 | $2,630.93 |
| 8.0% | $1,556.33 | $1,642.05 | $1,743.35 | $1,864.91 | $2,013.48 |
| 9.0% | $1,323.81 | $1,382.42 | $1,450.04 | $1,528.93 | $1,622.17 |
| 10.0% | $1,147.34 | $1,189.02 | $1,236.25 | $1,290.23 | $1,352.52 |
| 11.0% | $1,009.13 | $1,039.69 | $1,073.84 | $1,112.25 | $1,155.79 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Capital One Financial Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions