What is Calumet, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Calumet, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives -$15.39 per share. The share price was $34.73 on November 10, 2026, 326% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -9.0% | 10.0% | -$17.98 | -152% |
| Base | -4.0% | 9.0% | -$15.39 | -144% |
| Bull | 1.0% | 8.0% | -$10.56 | -130% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$13.66 | -$13.14 | -$12.52 | -$11.73 | -$10.72 |
| 8.0% | -$14.94 | -$14.61 | -$14.21 | -$13.74 | -$13.16 |
| 9.0% | -$15.88 | -$15.66 | -$15.39 | -$15.09 | -$14.72 |
| 10.0% | -$16.61 | -$16.45 | -$16.26 | -$16.05 | -$15.81 |
| 11.0% | -$17.18 | -$17.06 | -$16.93 | -$16.78 | -$16.61 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Calumet, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (-4.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions