What is Churchill Downs Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Churchill Downs Inc's reported free cash flow gives $258.18 per share. The share price was $79.77 on September 25, 2026, 69% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $131.86 | +65% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $258.18 | +224% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $493.40 | +519% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $353.82 | $383.64 | $420.09 | $465.65 | $524.23 |
| 8.0% | $281.97 | $301.31 | $324.17 | $351.60 | $385.12 |
| 9.0% | $229.70 | $242.92 | $258.18 | $275.98 | $297.02 |
| 10.0% | $190.06 | $199.47 | $210.12 | $222.30 | $236.35 |
| 11.0% | $159.05 | $165.94 | $173.65 | $182.31 | $192.14 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Churchill Downs Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (22.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions