What is Caterpillar Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Caterpillar Inc's reported free cash flow gives $481.01 per share. The share price was $821.58 on September 25, 2026, 71% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.0% | 10.0% | $299.75 | -64% |
| Base | 10.0% | 9.0% | $481.01 | -41% |
| Bull | 15.0% | 8.0% | $819.09 | -0% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $614.63 | $655.84 | $706.20 | $769.15 | $850.09 |
| 8.0% | $514.60 | $541.32 | $572.90 | $610.80 | $657.11 |
| 9.0% | $441.66 | $459.93 | $481.01 | $505.60 | $534.67 |
| 10.0% | $386.21 | $399.20 | $413.93 | $430.76 | $450.17 |
| 11.0% | $342.71 | $352.24 | $362.88 | $374.86 | $388.43 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Caterpillar Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions