What is Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives -$4.43 per share.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | -$8.33 | - |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | -$4.43 | - |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $2.83 | - |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$1.48 | -$0.56 | $0.57 | $1.98 | $3.79 |
| 8.0% | -$3.70 | -$3.10 | -$2.39 | -$1.55 | -$0.51 |
| 9.0% | -$5.31 | -$4.90 | -$4.43 | -$3.88 | -$3.23 |
| 10.0% | -$6.53 | -$6.24 | -$5.91 | -$5.54 | -$5.10 |
| 11.0% | -$7.49 | -$7.28 | -$7.04 | -$6.77 | -$6.47 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (25.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions