What is Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $321.82 per share. The share price was $34.32 on November 10, 2026, 89% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $196.53 | +473% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $321.82 | +838% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $555.11 | +1,517% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $416.68 | $446.25 | $482.40 | $527.59 | $585.69 |
| 8.0% | $345.42 | $364.60 | $387.27 | $414.47 | $447.71 |
| 9.0% | $293.57 | $306.69 | $321.82 | $339.47 | $360.34 |
| 10.0% | $254.26 | $263.59 | $274.16 | $286.24 | $300.17 |
| 11.0% | $223.50 | $230.34 | $237.98 | $246.57 | $256.32 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (43.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions