What is Arcbest Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Arcbest Corp's reported free cash flow gives $96.38 per share. The share price was $125.16 on September 25, 2026, 30% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $59.11 | -53% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $96.38 | -23% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $170.71 | +36% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $123.92 | $132.33 | $142.60 | $155.45 | $171.96 |
| 8.0% | $103.37 | $108.82 | $115.27 | $123.00 | $132.45 |
| 9.0% | $88.36 | $92.08 | $96.38 | $101.40 | $107.33 |
| 10.0% | $76.92 | $79.57 | $82.57 | $86.01 | $89.97 |
| 11.0% | $67.92 | $69.87 | $72.04 | $74.48 | $77.25 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Arcbest Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions