What is Artivion, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Artivion, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives -$5.58 per share.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | -$5.77 | - |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | -$5.58 | - |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | -$5.21 | - |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$5.44 | -$5.40 | -$5.34 | -$5.28 | -$5.19 |
| 8.0% | -$5.55 | -$5.52 | -$5.48 | -$5.44 | -$5.39 |
| 9.0% | -$5.62 | -$5.60 | -$5.58 | -$5.55 | -$5.52 |
| 10.0% | -$5.68 | -$5.67 | -$5.65 | -$5.63 | -$5.61 |
| 11.0% | -$5.73 | -$5.72 | -$5.70 | -$5.69 | -$5.68 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Artivion, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions