What is American Homes 4 Rent worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on American Homes 4 Rent's reported free cash flow gives $33.30 per share. The share price was $32.78 on November 10, 2026, 2% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $15.62 | -52% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $33.30 | +2% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $68.57 | +109% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $46.45 | $50.47 | $55.39 | $61.54 | $69.44 |
| 8.0% | $36.63 | $39.24 | $42.33 | $46.03 | $50.55 |
| 9.0% | $29.46 | $31.25 | $33.30 | $35.71 | $38.55 |
| 10.0% | $24.00 | $25.27 | $26.71 | $28.35 | $30.25 |
| 11.0% | $19.71 | $20.64 | $21.68 | $22.85 | $24.18 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at American Homes 4 Rent's revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (7.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions