What is American Homes 4 Rent worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on American Homes 4 Rent's reported free cash flow gives $33.43 per share. The share price was $30.64 on September 25, 2026, 8% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $15.74 | -49% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $33.43 | +9% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $68.69 | +124% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $46.57 | $50.59 | $55.51 | $61.66 | $69.57 |
| 8.0% | $36.75 | $39.36 | $42.45 | $46.15 | $50.67 |
| 9.0% | $29.58 | $31.37 | $33.43 | $35.83 | $38.67 |
| 10.0% | $24.12 | $25.39 | $26.83 | $28.47 | $30.37 |
| 11.0% | $19.83 | $20.76 | $21.80 | $22.97 | $24.30 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at American Homes 4 Rent's revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (7.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions