What is Amcor plc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Amcor plc's reported free cash flow gives $50.48 per share. The share price was $42.79 on September 28, 2026, 15% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.0% | 10.0% | $19.99 | -53% |
| Base | 13.0% | 9.0% | $50.48 | +18% |
| Bull | 18.0% | 8.0% | $107.30 | +151% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $73.33 | $80.43 | $89.10 | $99.94 | $113.87 |
| 8.0% | $56.19 | $60.79 | $66.23 | $72.75 | $80.73 |
| 9.0% | $43.71 | $46.85 | $50.48 | $54.72 | $59.72 |
| 10.0% | $34.23 | $36.47 | $39.01 | $41.90 | $45.25 |
| 11.0% | $26.81 | $28.45 | $30.29 | $32.35 | $34.68 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Amcor plc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions