What is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s reported free cash flow gives $189.20 per share. The share price was $282.22 on November 10, 2026, 49% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $98.83 | -65% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $189.20 | -33% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $357.45 | +27% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $257.61 | $278.94 | $305.02 | $337.61 | $379.51 |
| 8.0% | $206.22 | $220.05 | $236.40 | $256.02 | $280.00 |
| 9.0% | $168.82 | $178.28 | $189.20 | $201.93 | $216.98 |
| 10.0% | $140.47 | $147.20 | $154.82 | $163.53 | $173.58 |
| 11.0% | $118.28 | $123.22 | $128.73 | $134.93 | $141.95 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions