What is Affirm Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $70.61 per share. The share price was $71.52 on September 25, 2026, 1% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $33.72 | -53% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $70.61 | -1% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $139.30 | +95% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $98.54 | $107.25 | $117.89 | $131.20 | $148.30 |
| 8.0% | $77.56 | $83.21 | $89.88 | $97.89 | $107.68 |
| 9.0% | $62.29 | $66.15 | $70.61 | $75.81 | $81.95 |
| 10.0% | $50.72 | $53.46 | $56.57 | $60.13 | $64.24 |
| 11.0% | $41.66 | $43.67 | $45.92 | $48.45 | $51.32 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (37.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions